Juiced Earnings, Fanciful Figures and the Case for an "L" Shaped Recession
This entry was posted on 4/22/2008 12:19 PM and is filed under This Is Useful.

Knowledge of an impending storm provides the opportunity to seek shelter. In Juiced Earnings and Fanciful Earnings, Seeking Alpha asserts that we are headed into a recession "far worse than the wimpy recession of 2001."
The story points out a recent article from "Financial Week" that suggests corporate pension plans invest more heavily in liability-driven investments. What? Why worry?
As if racing for the exit at the smell of smoke, the Case for an L Shaped Recession (referenced in the article above) comes speeding onto my computer screen next, right on the heels of "Juiced Earnings".
An "L" shaped recession? This is one that does not come back up... doesn't bode well, does it?
Prognostication has value only if the prognosticators are correct and the reader takes action in response to the forecast. The primary course of action, at least in macro-economic terms, is to create fewer non-productive financial instruments and create additional quantities of tradable goods (i.e., manufacturing).
In the 10 minutes or so you would spend clicking on the links and reading these 2 articles you will read comments from the likes of Warren Buffet, Paul Morgan, Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs; you will read a little about the difference between corporate spending (10% of GDP) and consumer spending (70% of GDP), global wage arbitrage, a little history on the 10 year Japanese recession of the 1990's, and about the possible bankruptcy of Jefferson County, Alabama which would be the largest municipal bond bankruptcy in U.S. history, Seems like a useful way to spend 10 minutes...
The challenge of making this useful is to determine what action you can take to find shelter from the storm considering your unique opportunities. [There now, how was that for ending on a positive note?]